A Proposed and Enhanced Development Model to Invest in The Demographic Opportunity and Support Youth in Iraq After 2004

Abstract

Iraq's demographic transition presents a pivotal opportunity for socio-economic transformation, particularly with a rising working-age population projected to reach 67% by 2037. However, decades of conflict, economic instability, and governance deficits have eroded human capital and hindered sustainable development efforts. Existing studies inadequately address the intersection between demographic opportunity, youth empowerment, and the compounded effects of insecurity and underinvestment in Iraq. This study aims to propose a comprehensive development model to capitalize on Iraq’s demographic opportunity by empowering youth and aligning policy with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The research identifies the adverse impacts of prolonged military spending on health, education, and employment, revealing high opportunity costs and lost growth potential. It proposes a policy roadmap grounded in participatory governance, sectoral reforms, and youth-oriented strategies. The study introduces a multidimensional model that integrates demographic dynamics with economic diversification, human rights, and conflict mitigation—a rare approach in post-conflict state planning. Effective implementation of this model may transform Iraq’s youth bulge into a development catalyst, reduce dependency rates, and secure long-term stability. Further research is recommended to empirically validate the model and explore its scalability in similar fragile states.