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Analysis of National Rice Production Policy Using a Dynamic System Model Approach
Corresponding Author(s) : Melenia Desi
American Journal of Economics and Business Management,
Vol. 7 No. 7 (2024): July
Abstract
Limited rice production capacity and increasing rice consumption make conditions of food insecurity in the form of insufficient rice stocks inevitable. Good rice management in an area will affect the availability of food to meet the population's food needs. Based on Indonesian rice production data, it can be seen that rice stocks fluctuate from year to year. This research aims to analyze the dynamics of the causal relationship of variables that influence the state of rice production and stocks in Indonesia by using a systems approach and applying dynamic system modeling techniques. In this research, a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was created for the rice stock system based on a production sub-system which involves the relationship of 11 variables to produce a model output in the form of rice stock projections in Indonesia for the next 10 year period, namely 2024-2034. Validation of simulation results against actual data in the model using the RMSPE method shows a value of 2.88 percent (<5%) so the data can be said to be valid and accurate. The results of the model simulation based on existing conditions (scenario 0) show that rice production with the highest value occurred in 2019 amounting to 30,098,987.82 tonnes and continued to decline every year until 2038 amounting to 29,208,550.85 tonnes. The decline in production figures was caused by land conversion factors and resulted in a reduction in raw rice fields. The reduction in raw rice fields will certainly result in a decrease in rice production and a decrease in rice stocks in Indonesia in the future. Low planting intensity, namely 1.45, also results in low rice production in Indonesia. This condition can be resolved if the Indonesian Government implements effective policies with the policy option of increasing rice productivity with a minimum target of 61,649,964.08 tons/hectare (optimistic scenario 3).
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- F. Crop. Res., vol. 264, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108098.
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- Hengki, D., Sains, J., & Pangan, T. 2020. Analysis of Rice Availability Using a Dynamic Systems Approach in Punggaluku Village, Laeya District, South Konawe Regency. Journal of Food Science and Technology, Vol 4. 2360–2378.
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- Pradnyana, I. G. Y., Widia, I. W., & Sumiyati. 2021. Rice Stock Dynamic System Model to Support Food Security in Bali Province. Beta Journal (Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering). Vol 9 (4).
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- Sintiya, E. S., Information, J. T., & Malang, P. N. 2023. Analysis of Rice Availability Using Dynamic Systems to Support Food Security Policy Food security has always been the focus of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) amidst the threat of increasing numbers of people. Tecnoscienza Journal. Vol 7(2), 269–282.
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References
S. Cai, “Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China,” Nature, vol. 615, no. 7950, pp. 73–79, 2023, doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05678-x.
M. L. Jat, “Carbon sequestration potential, challenges, and strategies towards climate action in smallholder agricultural systems of South Asia,” Crop Environ., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 86–101, 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.crope.2022.03.005.
M. N. Nodin, “Assessing rice production efficiency for food security policy planning in Malaysia: A non- parametric bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach,” Food Policy, vol. 107, 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102208.
A. Anand, “Biochar production from crop residues, its characterization and utilization for electricity generation in India,” J. Clean. Prod., vol. 368, 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133074.
X. Chen, “Identifying the main crops and key factors determining the carbon footprint of crop production in China, 2001–2018,” Resour. Conserv. Recycl., vol. 172, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105661.
M. A. Al Mamun, “Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh,” PLoS One, vol. 16, no. 12, 2021, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261128.
Y. Liu, “Analysis of spatio-temporal variation of crop yield in China using stepwise multiple linear regression,”
F. Crop. Res., vol. 264, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108098.
L. Zhang, “Examining the carbon footprint of rice production and consumption in Hubei, China: A life cycle assessment and uncertainty analysis approach,” J. Environ. Manage., vol. 300, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113698.
N. Adnan, “How COVID 19 effect Malaysian paddy industry? Adoption of green fertilizer a potential resolution,” Environ. Dev. Sustain., vol. 23, no. 6, pp. 8089–8129, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s10668-020-00978-6.
I. G. Y. Pradnyana, “Dynamic System Model of Rice Stock to Support the Food Security of Bali Province,” vol. 9, no. April, 2021.
Asnawi, “FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENYEBAB TERJADINYA ALIH FUNGSI LAHAN SAWAH DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG Factors Caused of Land Conversion in Lampung Province,” J. Wacana Pertan., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 31– 45, 2022.
M. Aprillya and E. Suryani, “Simulation of System Dynamics for Improving The Quality of Paddy Production in Supporting Food Security,” J. Inf. Syst. Eng. Bus. Intell., vol. 9, pp. 38–46, Apr. 2023, doi: 10.20473/jisebi.9.1.38- 46.
A. Arifin, M. Arsyad Biba, A. Azisah, M. A. Sadat, and S. Mardiyati, “Kontribusi dan Trend Produksi Padi Daerah Pengembangan Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia,” J. Agrica, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 48–60, 2022, doi: 10.31289/agrica.v15i1.6339.
Budiawan, W., Arvianto, A., & Hadi, M. N. 2020. Rice Supply Policy Analysis for Central Java Province Using a Dynamic Systems Approach. National Seminars and Conferences. 292-302.
Budiawan, W., Arvianto, A., & Tengah-indonesia, J. 2017. Rice Supply Policy Analysis for Central Java Province Using a Dynamic System Approach. IDEC National Seminar and Conference. 292–302.
Fitriani, Cholid, F., Sutarni, and Fembriyanti, E. P. 2021. Sustainability of the Rice Commodity Value Chain. Dry Land Agribusiness Journal. Vol 6 (1). 27-33.
Handini, I.I., and As'ad, M. 2022. Factors Affecting Rice Imports in Indonesia 2015 – 2021. Journal of Business Administration. Vol 2(8), 759-768.
Hasanah, F., Setiawan, I., Trisna, I,R., and Eka, F.Y. 2021. Mapping the Distribution of Rice Land Conversion Levels in Serang Regency. Agrica Journal. Vol 14(2), 171-182.
Hengki, D., Sains, J., & Pangan, T. 2020. Analysis of Rice Availability Using a Dynamic Systems Approach in Punggaluku Village, Laeya District, South Konawe Regency. Journal of Food Science and Technology, Vol 4. 2360–2378.
Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. 2015. Guidelines for Special Efforts (UPSUS) to Increase Rice, Corn and Soybean Production Through the Irrigation Network Improvement Program and Supporting Facilities FY 2015. Jakarta: Director General of Agricultural Infrastructure and Facilities.
Nikmatullah Dewangga. 2021. Corn Farmers' Perceptions of the Upsus Pajale Program to Support Food Security in Bandar Sribhawono District, East Indonesia Regency. Journal of Extension and Development. Vol (3), 68-74.
Pradnyana, I. G. Y., Widia, I. W., & Sumiyati. 2021. Rice Stock Dynamic System Model to Support Food Security in Bali Province. Beta Journal (Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering). Vol 9 (4).
Saridewi Tri Ratna. 2018. Increasing the Productivity of Rice, Corn and Soybeans Through the Upsus Pajale Program in Garut Regency. Journal of Agrotechnology and Agribusiness. Vol 1(2), 45-57.
Setiadi Hilman, Mubassiran, R. D. H. 2022. Design of a Dynamic System Model for Rice Availability in Efforts to Support Food Security in Bandung Regency. Journal of Business Logistics. Vol 12(01), 56–59.
Sintiya, E. S., Information, J. T., & Malang, P. N. 2023. Analysis of Rice Availability Using Dynamic Systems to Support Food Security Policy Food security has always been the focus of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) amidst the threat of increasing numbers of people. Tecnoscienza Journal. Vol 7(2), 269–282.
Somantri, A. S., Luna, P., Widi, I., & Waryanto, B. 2020. Rice through the Special Effort Program Dynamic System Analysis for Evaluation Rice Self-Sufficiency Through the Special Effort Program. Journal of Agricultural Informatics. Vol 29(2), 95–110.
Wardani. C, Jamhari, Suhatmini, S., and Ani. S. 2019. Rice Resilience Performance in Indonesia: Comparison of Java and Outside Java for the 2005-2017 Period. Journal of National Resilience. Vol 25(1), 107-130.
Yeniwati, Y. R. 2019. Analysis of Production, Imports and Consumption of Rice Commodities in Indonesia. Journal of Economic and Development Studies. Vol 1(2), 623–634.