
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The Economic Model of Banking Lending’s Impact on Long-Term Growth Rates: The Russian Economy as a Case Study
Corresponding Author(s) : Mahdi Mohammed Tali
American Journal of Economics and Business Management,
Vol. 8 No. 6 (2025): June
Abstract
This study investigates the role of commercial bank lending in Russia’s economic growth, with a particular focus on the causal relationship between commercial credit expansion and macroeconomic performance. Employing econometric modeling and statistical analysis (Gretl), the research examines the dynamic interplay between banking sector credit volume and Russia’s GDP growth rate, utilizing key financial indicators: aggregate loan issuance to households and firms, real lending rates, GDP growth dynamics, and money supply (M2). Annual data from 2012 to 2019 were analyzed to assess the directional impact of bank credit on economic growth. Empirical results confirm a statistically significant positive relationship, demonstrating that private sector loan growth directly elevates real household income. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that banking credit exerts a disproportionately stronger effect on both GDP and monetary aggregates (M2) during fiscal consolidation phases—when government program funding contracts—compared to periods of unaccommodative monetary policy. These findings underscore the critical intermediation role of banks in growth stimulation, particularly in emerging markets undergoing structural fiscal transitions.
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- [8] N. M. Giblova, “The Influence of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in the Context of Instability,” Bankovskoe Pravo, no. 2, pp. 14–20, 2015.
- [9] J. Smith and A. Johnson, “Geochemical Modeling in Aquaculture: A Review,” Aquaculture Review, vol. 12, pp. 3210–3227, 2020.
- [10] V. I. Mikhalyuk, “Models of Economic Growth Stimulation (on Materials of Parliamentary Proceedings in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation),” Prakticheskiy Marketing, no. 12, pp. 3–6, 2015.
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[5] R. I. McKinnon, Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington: Brookings Institution Publ., 1973, 184 p.
[6] A. G. Aganbegyan, “New Model of Economic Growth of Russia,” Upravlencheskoe Konsultirovanie, no. 1, pp. 31–46, 2016.
[7] B. I. Alekhin, “Russia’s Financial Structure and Economic Growth,” Nauchno-issledovatelskiy Finansovyy Institut, Finansovyy Zhurnal, no. 5, pp. 71–83, 2017.
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[9] J. Smith and A. Johnson, “Geochemical Modeling in Aquaculture: A Review,” Aquaculture Review, vol. 12, pp. 3210–3227, 2020.
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[44] E. P. Zharkovskaya, Financial Analysis of Activity of Commercial Bank, Moscow: Omega-L Publ., 2015, 378 p.
[45] A. A. Shirov and M. S. Gusev, “Reasoning for Adoption of a New Model for Economic Growth,” Ekonomist, no. 9, pp. 3–12, 2015.
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[47] Tsentralnyy Bank Rossiyskoy Federatsii, “The Volume of Credits, Deposits, and Other Invested Assets Rendered to Organizations, Individuals and Lending Institutions: Data for 2012–2018.” [Online]. Available: cbr.ru/statistics/print.aspx?file=bank_system/4-3-1_17.htm&pid=pdko_sub&sid=dopk.
[48] Tsentralnyy Bank Rossiyskoy Federatsii, “Performance Indicators of Lending Institutions: Data for 2012–2018.” [Online]. Available: cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=pdko_sub.
[49] S. V. Soloveva, “Development of Credit Relations in the Real Sector and Economic Security,” Problemy Rynochnoy Ekonomiki, no. 3, pp. 36–43, 2017.
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