The Effect of Oil and Exchange Rates on the Money Supply using ARDL Model and causality test Toda & Yama Moto Standard study in Iraq for the period (2017-2021)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31150/ajebm.v5i3.984Keywords:
exchange rate, money supply, ARDL, causationAbstract
This study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rates on the money supply in the broad sense in Iraq using monthly data from (January 2017 to December 2021) and by (60) views, and this period was chosen as it included new government decisions to reform the structural system of the Iraqi economy, most notably the high price The exchange of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar (devaluation of the Iraqi dinar), as well as fluctuations in crude oil prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic, The research problem was formulated, which refers to the question (Is there a causal relationship linking crude oil prices and the exchange rate to the money supply in the broad sense? What is the direction of that relationship?) To test the research hypothesis, the ARDL model and the causality of Toda & Yama Moto were adopted. The research concluded that there is a joint integration and a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the research and the existence of a causal relationship between crude oil prices and the exchange rate with M2 during the research period. We recommend that an export base should be formed that does not depend on crude oil revenues alone , which contributes to achieving the goal of devaluing the currency The Central Bank of Iraq fixes the price of the dollar in the local markets in such a way that there is no significant difference between the price of the central bank and the price of the dollar in the local markets.
Downloads
References
Abbas, Belkacem, Exchange Rate Policies, (2003) Development Bridge, Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait. Issue 23, second year.
Abdel Jalil, Hajira, The Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance A Case Study of Algeria, (2012), Master's Thesis, University of Tlemcen, Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences.
Abdel Muttalib, Muhammad Shabana, Fundamentals of Economic Resources, (1998), University House, Alexandria.
Al-Dulaimi, Awad Fadel Ismail, Money and Banks, (1990), Dar Al-Hikma for Printing and Publishing, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, University of Baghdad.
Al-Hasnawi, Maytham Rabie, Using Commodity Futures Options in Hedging from the Price Risks of Crude Oil, (2006), unpublished PhD thesis, University of Baghdad.
Allawi, Kamil Kazem and Rahi, Muhammad Ghali, Measurement and Analysis of Financial Expansion and its Relationship to Economic Variables in Iraq, (2013) Al Ghari Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Volume (9), Issue (29).
Al-Naqqash, Ghazi Abdul Razzaq, International Finance and International Banking Operations, (2006), Wael Publishing House, Amman, Jordan, third edition.
Al-Shammari, Farah Ali Jassam, The Role of Monetary Policy in Reducing the Phenomenon of Inflation in the Iraqi Economy, Analytical Study for the Period (1970-2006), (2009), Applied Research to Obtain a Higher Diploma, University of Baghdad, Higher Institute for Accounting and Financial Studies.
Dickey, D.A, and fuller, W.A., Likelihood Ratio Statistic For Autor Essivesive, Time Series With A Unit Root (1989), Econometric, vol, 49.
El-Shennawy, Ismail Ahmed and Ghazlan, Mohamed Ezzat Mohamed and El-Sayed, Mohamed Gaber Hassan, The Economics of Money, Banks and Financial Markets, (2006), Publisher, Department of Economics - Faculty of Commerce - Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt.
Enders, Walter, Applied Econometric Time Series (1995), New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Gujarati, Damodar N, Basic Econometrics, (2004), 4th Edition, USA: McGraw-Hill.
Haddad, Akram and Hathloul, Mashhour, Money and Banks: An Analytical and Theoretical Introduction, (2010), Wael Publishing House, Amman, Jordan, third edition.
Hirsch, L.Robrt, Bezdaek, Windling, Robet, Peaking of world oil production: impacts' mitigation and risk management, (2005).
Kadri Abdel Majid, Introduction to Quantitative Economic Policies, an analytical and evaluative study, (2003) Algerian Publications Bureau.
Kanaan, Ali, Money, Banking and Monetary Policy, (2012), Dar Al-Manhal Lebanese, Beirut, Lebanon, first edition.
Khader, Zaher Abdel Halim, The Effect of the Exchange Rate on the Total Indicators of the Chinese Economy, (2012), Master Thesis, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Al-Azhar University, Gaza.
Khalaf, Falih Hassan, Money and Banks, (2006), The Modern World of Books for Publishing and Distribution, Irbid, Jordan, first edition, 2006.
Khalil, Sami. International economy. (2005), Dar Al-Nahda Al-Arabiya for Printing and Publishing, Cairo, Egypt, second edition.
Latrash, Taher, Banking Techniques, (2000), University Publications Office, Algeria,
Mishkin, Frederic S. and M. Savastano, Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America, (2001), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. ( 66)
Pesaran, M H Shin, Y Smith, R J, (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships Journal of applied econometrics Vol. 16; Iss. 3
Samhan, Hussein Muhammad and Yamen, Ismail Younes, The Economics of Money and Banks, (2011), Dar Safaa for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, Jordan, first edition.
Shalhoub, Ali Muhammad, Money and Banking Affairs, (2007), Shuaa Publishing and Science, Aleppo, Syria, first edition
Shendi, Adeeb Qassem, Money and Banks, (2010), Dar Al-Diaa for Printing and Publishing, Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf, Iraq, first edition.
Tawakkol, Hassan Ahmed Al-Fadl, Study of the long-term causal relationship between exchange rate rates and foreign exchange reserves in Sudan for the period from 1975-2016 using the methodology, Yamamoto and Toda–(2018), International Journal of Economic Studies, Arab Democratic Center, Germany Berlin, No. 02.
The World Bank, Quarterly Report, Standing at a Crossroads with Limited Economic Reforms, (2021), Iraq.
Zuhair Chaushan, Exchange rate fluctuations and their effects on the trade balance, a standard study of the case of Algeria (1990-2014), (2015), a master's thesis in management sciences, Oum El Bouaghi University, Faculty of Economics, Commercial and Management Sciences.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Karrar Hatam Attieh Al-Bidairi, Zahraa Yousif Abbas Al-Saadi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
