Using the (NARDL) model to measure the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on public spending in Iraq for the period (1970-2021)
Keywords:
Oil price fluctuations, Iraq, public spending, NARDL modelAbstract
The research aims to measure and analyze an effect of oil price fluctuations on public spending in Iraq, using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag regression (NARDL) model for the period (1970-2021). To describe the phenomenon studied and studying the nature of the impact that each of the positive and negative changes in oil prices has on public spending in Iraq.
The study concluded the existence of a long-term non-linear positive equilibrium relationship between crude oil prices and public spending in Iraq for the studied period, and that there is a positive and moral impact of positive and negative changes in oil prices on public spending in Iraq as, the positive shocks to crude oil prices had a greater impact on public spending in the long term compared to the negative shocks. It was also found that there is an asymmetry between positive and negative shocks to crude oil prices on public spending in the long term.
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